Thailand’s Draft Power Plan Maps 50.9GW Build-Out as AI and Industrial Demand Rise

Thailand is preparing a major expansion of its electricity system through 2050, with the draft Power Development Plan 2026 proposing four pathways that balance renewable energy, carbon capture, grid reliability and electricity costs as demand from industry, data centres and AI infrastructure increases.

The Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO) will open public consultation on the PDP 2026 on September 8, with projected electricity tariffs reaching between 4.11 and 4.58 baht per unit by 2050, depending on the energy mix selected.

All four scenarios share a common investment programme through 2037 that would add 50.9GW of generation and battery-storage capacity before their longer-term pathways begin to diverge.

50.9GW of New Capacity Planned Through 2037

Thailand’s initial infrastructure programme includes a substantial build-out of renewable generation, gas-fired capacity and battery storage.

The planned additions comprise:

• 24.3GW of solar power
• 14.5GW of battery energy storage systems
• 9.1GW of natural gas-fired generation
• 2.7GW of wind power
• 300MW of small modular nuclear reactors

The programme is intended to establish sufficient generation and storage capacity before Thailand commits to one of the longer-term energy pathways after 2037.

Four Energy Pathways Under Consideration

The draft presents four scenarios with different combinations of renewable energy, conventional generation and carbon capture.

The Base Case would deliver the lowest average electricity tariff at 3.8267 baht per unit and a 65% clean-energy share, but would not achieve Thailand’s 2050 net-zero target.

A second scenario relies more heavily on carbon capture and storage (CCS) while retaining domestic natural gas. Its average tariff is projected at 3.8859 baht per unit, the highest of the four options.

The renewable-focused scenario would raise clean energy to 89% of the electricity mix, producing the lowest projected emissions but requiring the largest investment in transmission infrastructure.

A fourth option combines renewable energy and CCS in an attempt to balance emissions reduction, electricity costs and supply security.

Renewable Expansion Could Require THB700 Billion in Grid Upgrades

Increasing the share of variable renewable generation will require significant changes to Thailand’s transmission infrastructure.

Under the renewable-heavy scenario, grid investment could reach as much as 700 billion baht to accommodate fluctuating solar and wind output and maintain electricity-system stability.

For the first time, the PDP also explicitly includes the cost of renewable-energy integration when calculating future electricity tariffs.

The plan separately accounts for carbon-capture infrastructure, based on an assumed CCS cost of US$135 per tonne of carbon.

AI and Data Centres Reshape Power Planning

Thailand’s latest power plan reflects changes in electricity demand that were less prominent in earlier planning cycles.

EPPO identified rapid data-centre and AI expansion alongside growing industrial demand for clean electricity as two of the major factors changing the country’s energy requirements.

Other changes include the growth of consumers producing their own electricity, electric-vehicle adoption and international trade requirements such as the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

For industrial investors and data-centre operators, access to reliable low-carbon electricity is becoming increasingly important when selecting locations for new facilities.

Direct PPAs Open Grid to Industrial Users

Private companies are also expected to take a larger role in Thailand’s future electricity market.

The government is expanding Direct Power Purchase Agreements and Third-Party Access, enabling industrial users and data centres to purchase green electricity more directly from producers.

The National Energy Policy Council approved an expansion of these arrangements in July, creating a pathway for large electricity users to secure renewable power while using the national transmission network.

The change could become particularly important for manufacturers and data centres seeking to meet corporate emissions targets or customer requirements for renewable electricity.

Reliability Measure Changes as Renewables Increase

PDP 2026 also changes how Thailand assesses electricity-system reliability.

Instead of relying mainly on traditional reserve-margin calculations, planners will use Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE), with a target of no more than one day per year.

The measure estimates the likelihood that available generation may be insufficient to meet demand and is designed to better reflect uncertainty as more variable renewable power enters the system.

Battery storage, flexible generation and transmission upgrades will therefore become increasingly important components of grid reliability.

Power Infrastructure Becomes Central to Thailand’s Industrial Growth

Thailand’s draft power plan shows how electricity policy is increasingly tied to the country’s industrial and digital-development ambitions.

Expanding semiconductor manufacturing, data centres, AI infrastructure and other energy-intensive industries will require more generation capacity while investors simultaneously demand cleaner electricity.

The proposed 50.9GW build-out through 2037, combined with major battery-storage deployment and grid modernisation, is intended to provide the infrastructure needed to support that growth.

The final direction will depend on which combination of renewables, gas, storage, nuclear and carbon capture Thailand chooses after the public consultation process.