Singapore Raises 2026 Export Forecast as AI Demand Lifts Electronics Shipments

Singapore has raised its full-year export forecast after non-oil domestic exports surged 27.4% in the second quarter of 2026, driven by strong global demand for semiconductors and electronics used in artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Enterprise Singapore upgraded its forecast for non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in 2026 to 14%–16% growth, significantly higher than its previous projection of 3%–5%. The revision follows stronger-than-expected trade performance during the first half of the year.

Singapore’s NODX grew 9.6% in the first quarter before accelerating sharply in the April-to-June period. For the first half of 2026, exports increased 18.6%, marking the strongest first-half growth since 2010.

Electronics Exports Surge on AI Infrastructure Demand

Electronics remained the main driver of Singapore’s export growth.

Electronics shipments increased a record 88.1% year on year in the second quarter, following 57.8% growth during the first three months of 2026.

Within the electronics segment, integrated circuit exports rose 91.9%, while disk media shipments increased 182.5%.

The strong performance reflects rising worldwide demand for semiconductors and electronic components required for AI data centres and high-performance computing infrastructure.

Global investment in AI infrastructure has supported semiconductor demand across several Asian manufacturing economies, with Singapore benefiting from its established electronics and semiconductor production base.

Manufacturing Output Supports Economic Growth

The export surge has also contributed to stronger manufacturing activity in Singapore.

High demand for AI-related electronics helped lift industrial output and supported average economic growth of 6.1% in the first half of 2026.

Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry subsequently upgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.5%–5.5%, from an earlier projection of 2%–4%.

The stronger outlook reflects better-than-expected economic performance during the first half of the year and continued global capital expenditure on AI infrastructure.

Non-Electronics Exports Also Recover

Growth was not limited to electronics.

Singapore’s non-electronics NODX increased 8% in the second quarter, reversing a 3.5% decline in the previous three-month period.

Pharmaceutical exports were a major contributor, rising 62.3% year on year.

Overall merchandise trade expanded 40.2% during the quarter, with total exports increasing 38.5%.

Singapore also recorded strong export growth across several major markets. NODX shipments to Taiwan rose 90.4%, followed by increases of 67.1% to South Korea and 58.9% to the United States.

AI Demand Expected to Support Second-Half Exports

Enterprise Singapore expects AI-related demand to continue supporting exports during the second half of 2026, although year-on-year growth rates may moderate because of the stronger comparison base.

The broader technology cycle also remains supportive for Singapore’s semiconductor and electronics sector.

However, risks remain.

A slowdown in global AI-related capital expenditure could reduce demand for semiconductors and other electronic components. Continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and changes in US trade policy could also affect global trade and manufacturing activity.

Despite these uncertainties, Singapore’s electronics sector remains supported by the continuing expansion of AI infrastructure and semiconductor demand.

The strong first-half performance highlights the growing impact of AI investment not only on technology companies, but also on manufacturing, semiconductor production and trade across Asia-Pacific.